Why I strongly oppose Pat Utomi’s ultimatum

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By. Prof. Isa Odidi

I strongly oppose Pat Utomi’s ultimatum that Peter Obi must only run for the presidency in 2027, and I will demonstrate why this position is politically flawed, strategically shortsighted, and detrimental to the very goal of defeating the APC.

Flawed Assumptions in Utomi’s Position:
Utomi’s stance is built on assumptions that do not align with political reality or the expressed goals of the opposition coalition.
Utomi’s Assumption is that the Presidency is the only worthy goal. Utomi frames a vice-presidential role for Obi as a betrayal so severe it warrants withdrawing support. This reflects a “presidency-or-nothing” mentality that ignores the strategic nature of coalition politics. Notably, my good friend Tanko Yunusa, the National Coordinator of the nationwide ‘Obidient Movement,’ has publicly stated the movement will abide by the outcome of the ADC’s presidential primary, even if Atiku Abubakar emerges as the candidate. This shows that Obi’s core support base prioritizes the coalition’s success over an unconditional guarantee for the top ticket.

An analysis of the 2023 Vote of Nigeria’s presidential election supports a case for unity, not division. ADC Chieftain Dr. Ladan Salihu provided crucial data that directly challenges Utomi’s premise. He noted that the combined votes of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar from the 2023 election amounted to 62-63% of the total presidential votes. This statistic fundamentally undermines the argument for a solo run. It suggests that a unified ticket featuring both men could be electorally unbeatable, making Utomi’s hardline stance counterproductive to the primary objective of winning.

Let’s say it as it is, Utomi’s stance is in contradiction with coalition principles! Utomi joins a party formed explicitly as a “broad national coalition” and then issues a personal ultimatum that undermines its internal democracy. As Dr. Salihu argued, “In politics, you don’t join a political party with conditionalities… The idea of somebody coming up to tell Nigerians… that if my presidential candidate should not win, it’s nothing, is anti-democratic”. Utomi’s condition contradicts the very cooperative spirit that made Obi’s move to the ADC meaningful.

Utomi’s stance is a strategic mistake, and here is why.

1. It Undermines the Coalition’s Strength:
   The ADC’s newfound strength comes from uniting major opposition figures. Public ultimatums like Utomi’s create unnecessary internal friction and signal disunity to voters, playing into the hands of the ruling party.
2. It puts personality over purpose:
   The stated mission is to “rescue the country”. By suggesting the mission fails if Obi is not at the very top, Utomi elevates one individual’s position above the collective national goal that millions of supporters believe in.
3. It Ignores political precedent and reality:
   Political history is filled with strategic partnerships. Obi himself successfully served as a governor and was a vice-presidential candidate in 2019. A senior statesman like Utomi should understand that politics requires negotiation and strategic compromise to achieve larger objectives.

Here is what a more principled opposition Stance Should Be.
A more responsible and effective position for a supporter like Utomi would be to:

1. Champion Internal Democracy:
   Advocate for a free, fair, and transparent
   primary process within the ADC, allowing
   delegates to choose the strongest ticket.
2. Focus on governance, not just positions: Continue to powerfully articulate the policy and moral failures of the current administration, keeping the public’s focus on the need for change, rather than internal squabbles.
3. Support the most electable formula: Acknowledge that the combined 63% vote share is the opposition’s greatest asset and support whichever candidate or ticket the coalition democratically decides gives it the best chance to defeat the APC.

In conclusion, while Pat Utomi’s passion is clear, his ultimatum is a mistake. True political leadership at this moment should be focused on forging a united front, not issuing divisive conditions. The goal is to defeat the APC and begin the work of rescuing Nigeria, a goal that may well require strategic flexibility from all involved, including Peter Obi.